Worst to first, ranked: the Lions are the clear bet, and it's not close
Eight teams finished last in their division in 2025. Detroit has a 38 percent shot at flipping to first. After that, the odds fall off a cliff.
Every year a couple of last-place teams flip to first. For 2026, the exercise is lopsided: the Lions are a genuine division favorite despite finishing bottom of the NFC North, and after them the field thins out fast. Here's how the eight worst-to-first candidates stack up.
Why are the Lions the runaway pick?
Because they're a last-place team only on paper. Detroit went 9-8 and finished last in a brutal NFC North, but ranks third in FPI and top-10 in DVOA across all three phases. They draw the 27th-hardest schedule and have obvious injury-recovery upside. At a 38.2 percent chance to win the division, the Lions aren't a long shot doing something improbable; they're a strong roster the standings undersold. This is the safest worst-to-first bet on the board.
Who's the second tier?
The Saints and Giants, at much longer odds. New Orleans (6-11, 19.3 percent) gets second-year coaching continuity, a late-2025 surge, and a weak division, with Tyler Shough, Chris Olave, and rookie Jordyn Tyson driving the offense. The Giants (4-13, 11.6 percent) are betting on two top-10 picks in the 2026 draft, the return of Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo from injury, and John Harbaugh's new staff. Both are plausible; neither is likely.
What about the bottom-feeders?
They need a leap. Tennessee (3-14, 5.6 percent) is leaning on a Cam Ward sophomore jump and the Carnell Tate addition. The Raiders and Jets (both 3-14, around 1.5 percent) need rookie-quarterback breakthroughs and rebounds that the math doesn't love. And the Browns (5-12, 1.1 percent) just traded Myles Garrett and return what the analysis calls the worst offense in the league by DVOA. The Cardinals (3-14, 0.1 percent) are effectively dead on arrival, with the hardest schedule and the most injuries in the league.
What's the takeaway for 2026?
Worst-to-first is usually a wide-open lottery, but this year it has a heavy favorite and a long tail. Detroit is the only team where the jump would surprise no one. The Saints and Giants are live dark horses with real reasons behind the optimism. Everyone else needs multiple things to break right at once. If you're betting a division flip, the Lions are the call, and the value plays are New Orleans and New York if you want a longer price.
Players in this story
Sources
- ESPN: Worst to first - Ranking NFL's most likely turnarounds in 2026
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