Are the Cowboys really Super Bowl contenders? Vegas isn't buying it
Dallas opens at +3500, 17th on the board, after a 7-9-1 season, an aging Dak Prescott and a defense still searching for an identity.
Stephen A. Smith spent the week arguing on television that Dallas can be a Super Bowl team. Sportsbooks disagree. The Cowboys opened Super Bowl LXI futures at +3500, the 17th-shortest price on the board, seventh in the NFC, and behind both the Commanders and the Eagles inside their own division.
What does last season tell us?
Dallas finished 7-9-1 and missed the playoffs for the second time in three years. The offense was the bright spot. Dak Prescott posted a career-best 4,552 passing yards and 30 touchdowns, Javonte Williams ran for over 1,000 yards in his first Dallas season, and George Pickens was a 1,200-yard receiver after the in-season trade. The defense was the problem: 25th in DVOA, 28th in third-down conversion rate allowed, and unable to generate consistent pressure outside of Micah Parsons.
Did the offseason actually fix anything?
Partially. Dallas franchise-tagged Pickens to keep him in the building, signed Marquez Valdes-Scantling for veteran depth at receiver, and enters the draft with two first-round picks and one of the league's largest cap-space totals. Defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus is in his second year, working with new defensive backs coach Christian Parker, a familiar name from Denver who is now charged with rebuilding a unit that gave up 27.4 points per game in 2025.
How old is Dak now?
Prescott turns 33 in late July and is entering his 11th NFL season. He's also coming off the second-most prolific passing season of his career, which complicates the narrative that he's in decline. The harder question is durability. Prescott missed five games over the past two seasons combined, and Dallas has not built quarterback insurance. Will Grier remains the No. 2.
Why are sportsbooks skeptical?
Three reasons. First, the division. Philadelphia and Washington both look like playoff teams again, which means Dallas likely has to win as a wild card. Second, the schedule. Dallas drew a top-15 strength of schedule with road games at Buffalo, Detroit and Los Angeles. Third, recency. Dallas has won one playoff game since 2019, and futures markets weight that pattern heavily.
What would change the equation?
A defense that finishes top-15 in points allowed, full health from Prescott and Parsons, and a return for left tackle Tyron Smith's heir, Tyler Guyton, to All-Rookie form. Hit all three and Dallas is suddenly a 10-win team in a winnable conference. Miss on any one and they're back at .500, which is exactly where the +3500 price is calibrated.
Players in this story
Sources
- DallasCowboys.com: Dak Prescott primed in a race against Father Time
- Yahoo Sports: Cowboys' Super Bowl LXI Odds Revealed
- Roundtable: Cowboys' Super Bowl LXI Odds Revealed
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