Study Estimates At Least 25% of NFL Players Develop CTE
Researchers from Mass General Brigham, Boston University and the Concussion & CTE Foundation say the figure is a low-end estimate, published in The BMJ using data from former players who died between 2008 and 2021.
A study published in The BMJ estimates that at least 25% of NFL players develop chronic traumatic encephalopathy, with researchers describing that figure as a low-end estimate of the disease's true prevalence.
How was the study conducted?
Researchers from Mass General Brigham, Boston University and the Concussion & CTE Foundation examined 1,712 former NFL players who died between 2008 and 2021. Of those, 338 families donated brains for study, and 315, or 93.2%, showed signs of CTE. Researchers used that donor data along with demographic and death-certificate information to estimate prevalence across a broader population of 878 players who died between 2016 and 2021, since CTE can currently only be diagnosed after death.
What did the lead researcher say?
Dr. Daniel Daneshvar of Mass General Brigham and Harvard Medical School, the study's lead author, called 25% the "low end" estimate, saying the true prevalence "is somewhere in the middle," with the model's estimates ranging up to nearly 97%. The study also found that 61.3% of NFL brain donors with confirmed CTE met clinical criteria for dementia.
What's the limitation of this kind of research?
Because families of players who showed symptoms are more likely to donate a brain for study, the donor sample isn't randomly selected, a known limitation researchers said they tried to statistically correct for in their broader population estimate.
Sources
- ESPN: Study shows at least 25% of NFL players develop CTE
