AI Predicts Every Week 6 Game of the 2026 NFL Season
After an 8-of-15 Week 5 in which the coin-flip picks went 1 for 6, the model picks all 14 Week 6 games, from Seahawks-Broncos on Thursday to Commanders-49ers on Monday night, with the Chiefs the widest lean.
Touchdown Week's prediction model went 8 of 15 in Week 5 and stands at 50 of 79 for the regular season. The high-confidence picks went 3-1, with Dallas' loss to Tampa Bay the miss, the medium tier went 4-1, and the low-confidence picks went 1-5 with a tie. Week 6 has 14 games, with Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami and Minnesota on byes, and a third straight London game, Texans-Jaguars at Wembley. Every pick is locked before kickoff and changed only for pregame injury news.
Thursday, Oct 15
Sunday, Oct 18
Monday, Oct 19
Where the model is most confident
Five games carry a high-confidence rating. Kansas City is 78 percent over the 0-5 Chargers after its bye, San Francisco is 70 percent over Washington on Monday night even with Dre Greenlaw suspended and Nick Bosa out, Indianapolis is 70 percent over winless Tennessee, the Rams are 68 percent over an Arizona team that just traded Marvin Harrison Jr., and New England is 66 percent over the Jets after Drake Maye's seven-touchdown, no-interception fortnight.
What the low-confidence picks are telling us
They went 1-5 with a tie in Week 5 and are 15 of 30 for the season. Every one of them is by definition close to a coin flip, and the model treats the tier honestly rather than inflating confidence, but two lessons stand out. First, both conditional picks lost: Atlanta over Baltimore assumed Lamar Jackson would be out, he was, and Tyler Huntley won anyway; the Giants over Washington assumed Jayden Daniels would be limited, he ran for 103 yards, and the game still ended tied. Second, Seattle at 52 percent over San Francisco and the Raiders at 54 percent over New England both went against the team with the better quarterback play that week. This week the model leans away from home teams in two of the coin flips, Carolina at Philadelphia and Denver over Seattle, for roster-health reasons rather than form.
Quarterback situations shaping the picks
Baltimore at Cleveland is a 58 percent Ravens lean that assumes Tyler Huntley starts again with Jackson's ankle unresolved. Chicago at Atlanta assumes Michael Penix Jr. plays through his rib injury and that the Bears start either Tyson Bagent or Case Keenum. Houston's Marvin Harrison Jr. makes his debut in London against the league's best scoring defense. Jalon Daniels gets a third start for Tampa Bay against a Pittsburgh offense that has scored 88 points in three games.
How the picks get graded
Every prediction is published before kickoff and edited only for pregame injury news, never afterward. Once a game is final it is graded on the winner and on how far the projected margin missed, and ties count as misses. The running record by confidence level lives on the predictions hub and in the Touchdown Week app, and each game page shows the pregame pick next to the final score.