AI Predicts Every Week 5 Game of the 2026 NFL Season
After an 11-of-16 Week 4, the model picks all 15 Week 5 games, from Thursday's Buccaneers-Cowboys to Bills-Rams on Monday night, with 49ers-Seahawks and Ravens-Falcons the closest calls.
Touchdown Week's prediction model went 11 of 16 in Week 4 and stands at 42 of 64 for the regular season. The high-confidence picks went 3-1, with Buffalo's loss to New England the miss, the medium tier went 4-1, and the low-confidence picks went 4-7. Three games landed on the exact margin: Chiefs-Raiders, and the Bears' and Vikings' point totals. Week 5 has 15 games, with Carolina and Kansas City on byes, and includes the second straight London game, Eagles-Jaguars. Every pick is locked before kickoff and changed only for pregame injury news.
Thursday, Oct 8
Sunday, Oct 11
PHI@
JAX
CHI@
GB
HOU@
TEN
CIN@
MIA
LV@
NE
MIN@
NO
CLE@
NYJ
IND@
PIT
NYG@
WSH
DEN@
LAC
DET@
ARI
SF@
SEA
BAL@
ATLMonday, Oct 12
Where the model is most confident
Four games carry a high-confidence rating. Dallas is 74 percent over winless Tampa Bay on Thursday night, with Baker Mayfield out and undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels making his second start. Cincinnati is 68 percent at Miami, which has scored 46 points in four games and lost De'Von Achane for the season; that pick holds whether or not Ja'Marr Chase clears the concussion protocol. Minnesota is 66 percent at New Orleans on the strength of a defense that has allowed 51 points, and Denver is 66 percent at the 0-4 Chargers, who lost both starting tackles in Seattle.
The two closest calls
San Francisco at Seattle is the game of the week and the model has it 52-48 for the home team. The 49ers are 4-0 and have won every game by 10 or more, but Nick Bosa, C.J. West, Kyle Juszczyk and three receivers are out and two defensive backs were hurt Sunday, while the champions are at home with Sam Darnold back and a defense that just forced four turnovers. Ravens at Falcons on Sunday night is a 54 percent Atlanta lean only because Lamar Jackson left Sunday's game in a walking boot and Jesse Minter does not know if he will play; a healthy Jackson would flip it, and the game page will say so before kickoff.
Quarterback situations to watch
Tyson Bagent starts again for Chicago at Green Bay, and the model leans Bears at 53 percent on defense rather than on him. Washington's quarterback against the Giants could be Jayden Daniels, back from his elbow dislocation, or rookie Athan Kaliakmanis after Marcus Mariota's knee injury; the pick assumes Daniels is limited or absent. Justin Jefferson's ankle affects the Vikings' margin at New Orleans but not the pick.
What the model learned in Week 4
The miss that hurt was Buffalo, a 78 percent pick that lost at home to a Patriots team that had been beaten 35-6 a week earlier. The three Week 3 high-confidence misses all involved a replacement quarterback outperforming expectations, and the Week 4 miss was the reverse: a struggling starter in Drake Maye playing his best game. The lesson in both directions is that one week of quarterback play, good or bad, is a weaker signal than the model was treating it as. High-confidence picks are 12 of 19 for the season.
How the picks get graded
Every prediction is published before kickoff and edited only for pregame injury news, never afterward. Once a game is final it is graded on the winner and on how far the projected margin missed, and ties count as misses. The running record by confidence level lives on the predictions hub, and each game page shows the pregame pick next to the final score.