AI Predicts Every Week 4 Game of the 2026 NFL Season
Week 3 went 10 of 16, but the high-confidence picks split 3-3, so the model is more cautious this week: four High picks instead of six, led by Buffalo over New England, with Chiefs at Raiders the game of the week.
Touchdown Week's prediction model went 10 of 16 in Week 3 and stands at 31 of 48 for the regular season. The overall number hides a problem: the six high-confidence picks went 3-3, with Green Bay, Seattle and Philadelphia all losing, while the low-confidence picks went 5-2 and three games landed on the exact margin. Week 4 opens Thursday night in Cleveland, includes a morning kickoff in London, and closes Monday night in New Orleans. Every pick is locked before kickoff and changed only for pregame injury news.
Thursday, Oct 1
Sunday, Oct 4
IND@
WSH
NE@
BUF
NYJ@
CHI
JAX@
CIN
ARI@
NYG
LAR@
PHI
GB@
TB
TEN@
BAL
DAL@
HOU
MIA@
MIN
KC@
LV
DEN@
SF
LAC@
SEA
DET@
CARMonday, Oct 5
What went wrong with the high-confidence picks
All three misses came from underrating a quarterback change. Atlanta was projected for 13 points in Michael Penix Jr.'s return and scored 35. Washington beat Seattle with Marcus Mariota throwing three touchdown passes. Chicago beat Philadelphia by 20 with Case Keenum, its third-string quarterback. In each case the model treated the replacement as a downgrade when the offense around him was the larger factor. Through three weeks, high-confidence picks are 9 of 15, which is not good enough to justify the label, so the threshold for using it has effectively gone up.
Where the model is most confident
Four games carry a high-confidence rating. Buffalo is 78 percent over a New England team that lost 35-6 and is missing two guards. Minnesota is 77 percent over winless Miami, which lost De'Von Achane to a knee injury, and that pick holds with or without Justin Jefferson. Baltimore is 76 percent over winless Tennessee despite having no healthy center. Seattle is 70 percent over the 0-3 Chargers, three points lower than last week's miss at the same tier.
The game of the week
Kansas City at Las Vegas matches two 3-0 teams for first place in the AFC West. The model leans Chiefs at 58 percent, 27-24, because Patrick Mahomes is completing passes at a rate the Raiders' defense has not faced and because Las Vegas needed four takeaways to come back in New Orleans. Kirk Cousins has nine touchdown passes and gets Brock Bowers for a second straight week. San Francisco, the other 3-0 team at home, is only 62 percent over Denver with Nick Bosa out and the Broncos coming off two fourth-quarter comebacks.
Quarterback situations to watch
The Giants pick against Arizona assumes Jameis Winston starts after the trade for J.J. McCarthy. Green Bay at Tampa Bay opened as a 52 percent Packers lean and moved to 62 percent on Thursday after Baker Mayfield was ruled out for at least three weeks and undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels was named the starter. Chicago has not said whether Keenum, Tyson Bagent or Caleb Williams starts against the Jets, and after last week the model gives the Bears 60 percent regardless. Washington's Mariota starts in London against Indianapolis. Any confirmed change before kickoff will be noted on the game page, as it was when Kyler Murray's return flipped the Minnesota pick in Week 3, a pick that hit.
How the picks get graded
Every prediction is published before kickoff and edited only for pregame injury news, never afterward. Once a game is final it is graded on the winner and on how far the projected margin missed, and ties count as misses. The running record by confidence level lives on the predictions hub, and each game page shows the pregame pick next to the final score.