AI Predicts Every Week 3 Game of the 2026 NFL Season
After a 10-of-16 Week 2 in which two of five high-confidence picks missed, the model picks all 16 Week 3 games, from Michael Penix Jr.'s debut at Lambeau on Thursday to Eagles-Bears on Monday night with Caleb Williams likely out.
Week 2 went 10 of 16 for Touchdown Week's prediction model, which leaves it at 21 of 32 for the regular season. The high-confidence picks went 3-2, with Baltimore's loss to New Orleans and Tampa Bay's loss to Cleveland the misses, the medium tier went 3-2 and the low-confidence coin flips went 4-2. Week 3 opens Thursday night in Green Bay, includes the league's first game at the Maracanã in Rio de Janeiro, and closes Monday night in Chicago. Every pick below is built from the injury reporting and film as of Tuesday and is locked before kickoff.
Thursday, Sep 24
Sunday, Sep 27
CAR@
CLE
CIN@
PIT
HOU@
IND
KC@
MIA
LAC@
BUF
NYJ@
DET
SEA@
WSH
TEN@
NYG
NE@
JAX
ARI@
SF
MIN@
TB
BAL@
DAL
LV@
NO
LAR@
DENMonday, Sep 28
Where the model is most confident
Six games carry a high-confidence rating, the most of any week so far. Kansas City is an 80 percent lean at Miami, where Malik Willis has started both Dolphins losses, and San Francisco is 78 percent over Arizona after Brock Purdy's 20-of-22 game and the Cardinals' 151-yard afternoon against Seattle. Buffalo is 76 percent over a Chargers team that just lost both tight ends to injured reserve, Seattle is 72 percent at Washington with Marcus Mariota replacing Jayden Daniels, Philadelphia is 70 percent at Chicago on the assumption Caleb Williams sits, and Green Bay is 68 percent over Atlanta on Thursday night in Michael Penix Jr.'s first start since his ACL surgery.
Lessons from the two big misses
Baltimore at 75 percent and Tampa Bay at 72 percent both lost at home in Week 2, and in both cases the model leaned on a single dominant or dismal Week 1 performance. That is why Carolina, which allowed 59 points and then won 34-3, is only a 47 percent underdog at Cleveland, and why the Vikings, who have won by 17 and by 6 with 9 points, are a 47 percent road pick at 0-2 Tampa Bay. The Rams at Denver on Sunday night is another game where the model refuses to chase last week's score: Los Angeles won by 22 but is a 54 percent lean at altitude with Puka Nacua questionable.
Quarterback situations shaping the picks
Five games hinge on who is under center. Penix's debut drives the Atlanta pick, Bagent's likely start drives the Chicago pick, and Mariota's start at Washington drives the Seattle pick. Tennessee at the Giants is a 53 percent road lean only because Jaxson Dart is believed to have a sprained MCL and Jameis Winston went 11 of 27 in relief; if Dart is cleared, that pick would be revisited before kickoff. Seattle's own quarterback is unsettled too, but the model treats Sam Darnold and Drew Lock as roughly equal after Lock's three-touchdown day in Arizona. Kyler Murray's status in the concussion protocol is the swing factor in Tampa.
Rio, the surface and the neutral field
Dallas is the designated home team at the Maracanã, but the model treats it as a neutral site and leans Baltimore at 58 percent on the strength of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry against a Cowboys defense that allowed 389 yards to Washington. The counterweight is Dak Prescott's four-touchdown game and Zay Flowers' hamstring, which is why the projection is 27-24 and not wider. The league says it has no concerns about the grass after record rainfall; the pick does not account for the field beyond the assumption that both teams play on the same surface.
How the picks get graded
Every prediction is published before kickoff and edited only for pregame injury news, never afterward. Once a game is final it is graded on the winner and on how far the projected margin missed, and ties count as misses. The running record by confidence level lives on the predictions hub, and each game page shows the pregame pick next to the final score.