AI Predicts Every Week 7 Game of the 2026 NFL Season
After an 8-of-14 Week 6 with two big High-confidence upsets, the model picks all 14 Week 7 games, from Patriots-Bears on Thursday to Cowboys-Eagles on Monday night, with only Minnesota rated High.
Touchdown Week's prediction model went 8 of 14 in Week 6 and stands at 58 of 93 for the regular season. The high-confidence picks went 3-2, with Tennessee's first win at Indianapolis and Arizona's upset of the Rams as 13.5-point underdogs the misses. The medium tier went 4-3 and the low tier 1-1. Two picks landed on the exact margin: Denver over Seattle and Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay. Week 7 has 14 games, with Buffalo, Jacksonville, the Chargers and Washington on byes, and includes Steelers-Saints in Paris. Every pick is locked before kickoff and changed only for pregame injury news.
Thursday, Oct 22
Sunday, Oct 25
Monday, Oct 26
Why only one High pick this week
Minnesota over Indianapolis at 68 percent is the only game the model rates High: the Vikings are 5-0, coming off a bye with Justin Jefferson healthy, and have allowed 64 points in five games. The high-confidence tier is 18 of 28 for the season, 64 percent, which is barely better than the medium tier's 24 of 33. Until that gap widens, the model is reserving the label for games where the better team also has the rest and health advantage. Last week's two High misses both came from favorites losing to teams that had looked lifeless the week before.
Quarterback situations shaping the picks
Philadelphia will start Tanner McKee for the rest of the season after Jalen Hurts was diagnosed with blood clots in his lungs, and the model leans Dallas at 54 percent on Monday night. Baltimore over Cincinnati is only 52 percent because Lamar Jackson's ankle is unresolved; with Jackson confirmed it would be closer to 60. The Giants have not named Jameis Winston or J.J. McCarthy for Houston. Tampa Bay at Carolina assumes Jalon Daniels starts while Baker Mayfield is evaluated. Any confirmed change will be noted on the game page before kickoff.
Injuries that moved the numbers
San Francisco is 6-0 but only 58 percent at Atlanta, with Mike Evans dealing with Achilles tendinitis and Deebo Samuel and DeMarcus Robinson out. The Rams are a 52 percent coin flip at Las Vegas after losing Davante Adams for six to 10 weeks, Poona Ford for the season and Kobie Turner for several weeks, though left tackle Alaric Jackson returns from suspension. Kansas City is 61 percent at Seattle without Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton.
How the picks get graded
Every prediction is published before kickoff and edited only for pregame injury news, never afterward. Once a game is final it is graded on the winner and on how far the projected margin missed, and ties count as misses. The running record by confidence level lives on the predictions hub and in the Touchdown Week app, and each game page shows the pregame pick next to the final score.