AI Predicts Every Week 2 Game of the 2026 NFL Season
After an 11-of-16 opening week, the model picks all 16 Week 2 games, from Thursday's Lions-Bills shootout at the new Highmark Stadium to the Giants at a Rams team that just lost Myles Garrett for a month.
Week 1 went 11 of 16 for Touchdown Week's prediction model, with the four high-confidence picks going 3-1 (the Cardinals' upset of the Chargers was the miss), the medium tier 7-1, and the low-confidence coin flips 1-3. Week 2 opens Thursday night in Buffalo and closes Monday night at SoFi Stadium. Every pick below is built from the latest injury reporting, Week 1 film and the quarterback situations as of Tuesday, and each is locked before kickoff.
Thursday, Sep 17
Sunday, Sep 20
CAR@
ATL
MIN@
CHI
PHI@
TEN
PIT@
NE
GB@
NYJ
CLE@
TB
NO@
BAL
CIN@
HOU
JAX@
DEN
LV@
LAC
WSH@
DAL
SEA@
ARI
MIA@
SF
IND@
KCMonday, Sep 21
Where the model is most confident
Five games carry a high-confidence rating. San Francisco is an 80 percent lean over Miami, the widest of the week, after the 49ers' 27-7 dismantling of the Rams and the Dolphins' five-sack loss in Las Vegas. Baltimore is 75 percent over New Orleans on the strength of a 506-yard opener, Tampa Bay is 72 percent over Cleveland in Baker Mayfield's game against his former team, Philadelphia is 70 percent at Tennessee, and Kansas City is 68 percent over Indianapolis on Sunday night with Patrick Mahomes healthy and Kenneth Walker III coming off a 173-yard debut.
The picks against the line
Jacksonville over Denver is the model's main disagreement with the sportsbooks, which favor the Broncos by a field goal. Denver managed 218 yards in Kansas City, is on a short week, and lost to this Jaguars team in this building last year; Trevor Lawrence threw four touchdowns on 23 attempts in Week 1. It is a 54 percent lean, and the model's Denver pick a week ago missed by three touchdowns, so the confidence is low. Carolina at Atlanta is a near pick'em that goes to the Panthers because Atlanta still hasn't settled on a quarterback.
Quarterback questions shaping the picks
Minnesota's Kyler Murray is in the concussion protocol, so the Vikings' pick at Chicago assumes Carson Wentz, who threw three touchdowns in relief. Seattle's Drew Lock starts at Arizona with Sam Darnold out, which is why the champions are only a 55 percent lean at the surprising Cardinals. Atlanta's Cooper Rush, Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix Jr. question is unresolved, and Drake Maye's three-interception opener plus A.J. Brown's move to injured reserve keep New England's home pick over Pittsburgh at 54 percent.
The Garrett effect on Monday night
The Rams are favored by about a touchdown over the Giants, but the model has it at three points. Myles Garrett is on injured reserve for at least four games after knee surgery, Matthew Stafford posted a 61.2 rating in Australia, and Jaxson Dart completed 79 percent of his passes with three touchdowns in John Harbaugh's debut. Los Angeles still gets the pick at 56 percent on rest, home field and Stafford's track record.
How the picks get graded
Every prediction is published before kickoff and never edited afterward. Once a game is final it is graded on the winner and on how far the projected margin missed, and ties count as misses. The running record by confidence level lives on the predictions hub, and each game page shows the pregame pick next to the final score.